Buy TVs, toys, clothes, appliances and furniture on Black Friday (27 November); buy laptops, phones and other electronics on Cyber Monday (30 November). That's the pattern in Adobe's 2026 holiday forecast, which predicts the deepest online discounts of the season, up to 30% off, during Cyber Week. Sporting goods are the exception: their best prices are forecast for Thanksgiving.
Photo: Markus Spiske on Unsplash
Adobe bases its forecast on visits to US retail websites, so it's the closest thing shoppers have to a price calendar. We've turned it into a simple "when to buy what" guide, with the catch for each category and what we'd do. Figures checked on 3 November 2026.
Looking for codes? We list checked offers from EcoFlow, Anker SOLIX, Bedsure and BloomChic, among others.
When is the best day to buy each category?
Black Friday is the best day for most categories, Cyber Monday for electronics and computers, and Thanksgiving for sporting goods, according to Adobe's forecast.
| Category | Best day (Adobe forecast) | Peak discount 2026 | Peak discount 2025 | Our verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronics | Cyber Monday | 30% | 30.1% | Wait for Cyber Monday |
| Toys | Black Friday | 29% | 28% | Buy on Black Friday, or earlier for hot toys |
| Computers | Cyber Monday | 23% | 22.8% | Wait for Cyber Monday |
| TVs | Black Friday | 23% | 24.2% | Buy on Black Friday |
| Clothing | Black Friday | 23% | 23.2% | Buy on Black Friday |
| Sporting goods | Thanksgiving | 19% | 19.5% | Buy on Thanksgiving |
| Appliances | Black Friday | 18% | 19.2% | Buy on Black Friday, or earlier with a price guarantee |
| Furniture | Black Friday | 18% | 19% | Buy on Black Friday |
Source: Adobe Digital Insights 2026 US holiday forecast. Discounts are the forecast peak percentage off the listed price, not a guarantee for every product.
Peak discount by category, Adobe Digital Insights 2026 forecast. Chart: PickMeADeal.
The catch: a peak discount is an average across thousands of products. The item you want might be cheaper on a different day, so always check its own price history before buying.
How much will discounts change through the season?
Adobe expects discounts to build slowly, peak during Cyber Week, then settle:
| Period | Expected discount |
|---|---|
| Early November | Up to 14% |
| Just before Thanksgiving | Up to 21% |
| Cyber Week (26–30 November) | Up to 30% |
| December | 10–15% |
That's why "early Black Friday" deals in the first week of November are usually smaller than the real thing. If an early price is already at its lowest point of the year, buy it. If not, it'll probably get cheaper.
Electronics: wait for Cyber Monday
Electronics is the biggest holiday category. Adobe forecasts $63.3 billion in online sales, up 5.9%, with discounts peaking at 30% on Cyber Monday. That covers headphones, smart speakers, cameras, gaming accessories and smart home devices.
What we'd do: shortlist on Black Friday, buy on Cyber Monday. If you find a strong Black Friday price at a store with price protection, such as Best Buy, buy it then. Best Buy will match its own lower price on most items bought between 30 October and 31 December until 15 January (Best Buy).
Portable power stations follow the same pattern. Brands like EcoFlow and Anker SOLIX usually run their deepest Black Friday prices through Cyber Monday. Compare them in our EcoFlow vs Jackery guide.
Computers and laptops: wait for Cyber Monday
Laptops and computers are forecast to hit 23% off on Cyber Monday, about the same as last year.
The catch: many Black Friday laptops are older models or special "doorbuster" builds with less storage or memory. Check the model number and specs, not just the brand.
What we'd do: decide the minimum specs you need (memory, storage, screen size) before Cyber Monday, then compare only models that meet them.
TVs: buy on Black Friday
TVs are the one big electronics item where Black Friday beats Cyber Monday, with discounts up to 23%. That's slightly lower than 2025's 24.2%.
What we'd do: TV prices often drop again before the Super Bowl in late January and February. If your current TV works, waiting is a reasonable option.
Toys: Black Friday, or earlier for the hot ones
Toys are forecast to reach 29% off on Black Friday, up from 28% last year, with online toy spending expected to grow 9.6% to $9.6 billion.
The catch: the most popular toys can sell out before Black Friday. If a child has one specific toy on their list, buy it when you see a fair price, even if it's a little higher than the Black Friday forecast.
Clothing and shoes: buy on Black Friday
Apparel is forecast to peak at 23% off on Black Friday. Fashion brands also tend to stack sitewide codes on top of sale prices during Black Friday weekend.
What we'd do: sign up to your favourite brands' newsletters now. Stores like BloomChic and Dream Pairs often give subscribers early access or a welcome code. Then check our guide to stacking discounts so you use them in the right order.
Appliances and furniture: buy on Black Friday
Both categories are forecast to peak at 18% off on Black Friday, slightly less than last year. Furniture spending is expected to grow 7.3% to $33.4 billion.
The catch: big items come with delivery and installation charges, and some sellers pre-tick paid extras at checkout. In October 2026, the UK's Competition and Markets Authority fined Appliances Direct £1.2 million, partly for automatically adding paid installation and recycling services (CMA). Check every line of your basket before you pay.
For bedding and mattresses, see our guide to the best time to buy a mattress. Stores like Bedsure and Keetsa list their current offers on PickMeADeal.
Sporting goods: buy on Thanksgiving
Sporting goods are the only category Adobe expects to be cheapest on Thanksgiving Day (26 November), at up to 19% off.
Everyday essentials: stock up during Cyber Week
Adobe expects people to buy far more everyday items during Cyber Week than usual, compared with September averages:
| Essential | Cyber Week sales vs September |
|---|---|
| Clothing basics | +210% |
| Personal hygiene | +150% |
| Baby products | +113% |
| Pet products | +93% |
| Household cleaning | +49% |
What we'd do: if you have space, stock up on non-perishables you use anyway, such as razors, nappies, pet food and cleaning products. These are guaranteed savings, unlike gadgets you might not need.
How big will holiday shopping be in 2026?
US shoppers are forecast to spend a record $275.1 billion online between 1 November and 31 December, up 6.7%, according to Adobe.
| Forecast | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US online holiday spending (1 Nov – 31 Dec) | $275.1 billion, up 6.7% | Adobe |
| Cyber Monday online spending | $15.1 billion, the biggest day | Adobe |
| Black Friday online spending | $12.9 billion, up 9.2% | Adobe |
| Total US holiday retail sales | $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% | NRF |
| Average household holiday budget | $1,654, up 4% | Deloitte |
| Buy now, pay later spending (Nov–Dec) | $21.3 billion, up 6.6% | Adobe |
Deloitte's survey of 4,000 US shoppers also found that 28% expect their budget to run out by the end of October, the highest share in six years, and 22% plan to start shopping earlier than last year.
Does this apply to UK shoppers?
Adobe's forecast covers US websites, but UK sales follow a similar pattern, with tech discounts often deepest around Cyber Monday. The bigger UK issue is whether Black Friday prices are real discounts at all. Which? found about 80% of the Black Friday deals it tracked in 2024 were the same price or cheaper at other times of the year (Shopappy). Our guide to spotting fake discounts shows how to check.
How to use this calendar
- List what you need and sort it by category.
- Put each item on its best day: Thanksgiving, Black Friday or Cyber Monday.
- Check the price history of each item now, so you know a good price when you see one.
- Find each store's sale dates in our Black Friday 2026 calendar by store.
- Have a backup: if an item sells out, December discounts are forecast at 10–15%, so you can still save.
What we'd do this year
- Thanksgiving: sporting goods and fitness gear.
- Black Friday: TVs, toys, clothes, shoes, appliances, furniture.
- Cyber Monday: laptops, headphones, phones, cameras and other tech.
- Cyber Week: stock up on household essentials you'll use anyway.
- Skip: "early Black Friday" prices that aren't at the item's lowest point of the year.
About this guide: written by the PickMeADeal editorial team. Dates, prices and policies were checked on 3 November 2026 against the Adobe, NRF and Deloitte reports and sources linked above, and we'll update this page as stores confirm more. We may earn a commission when you buy through our links; it never changes your price.
FAQs
Is Black Friday or Cyber Monday better for deals in 2026?
It depends on the category: Black Friday for TVs, toys, clothes, appliances and furniture, and Cyber Monday for laptops and other electronics, according to Adobe's forecast.
What is the best day to buy a TV in 2026?
Black Friday, 27 November, when Adobe expects TV discounts to peak at up to 23%.
What is the best day to buy a laptop in 2026?
Cyber Monday, 30 November, when Adobe expects computer discounts to peak at up to 23%.
How big are Black Friday discounts in 2026?
Adobe forecasts online discounts of up to 30% during Cyber Week, compared with up to 14% in early November.
Are early Black Friday deals worth it?
Only if the price is already at the item's lowest point of the year, or the store offers a price guarantee.
Related reads: Black Friday 2026 sale dates by store · Cyber Monday 2026 · Are Black Friday deals real?
